How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them

This weeks book I think I heard about on Joe Rogan? Maybe. I think that’s where I heard about it. And since I think there are very few people who would disagree that the country is headed to hell in a handbasket, I decided to read How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them by Barbara F. Walter.

Apparently, there are several non-governmental organizations that have dedicated themselves to studying civil wars and the stages a country will go through prior to erupting in civil war. This, in and of itself, is not surprising. We have NGO’s studying the effects of cocaine on squirrel sex drives…allegedly… so of course we have NGO’s studying civil unrest in all the countries of the world.

Basically, the countries of the world are rated on a polity scale-10 to +10 scale of freedom, with -10 being an absolute authoritarian regime, like North Korea, and +10 being where freedom rings, like America. Allegedly. We’ll get to that.

When a country slides to the -5 to +5 range, they are in what’s called an anocracy, which is basically a crossover form of government that is part democracy and part dictatorship. Anocracy’s are where Civil war becomes likely. If a country slips to the -1 to +1 range, Civil War is all but certain.

So, what are some of the causes that will have a country slide up or down the scale? War, not necessarily civil war, but a war that results in a regime change, is a big factor. Think Iraq after we pulled Saddam Hussein out of power. Balkanization. After the Soviet Union collapsed and the Soviet satellite states were left in the anocracy zone, trying to figure out if they were going democratic with their governance or smaller, closer to home dictatorships. Rise in factions is another one. Think Rwanda with the Hutu and the Tutsi’s becoming factionalized, or Yugoslavia during Balkanization when it broke into the Croats and the Serbs. Here she introduces the idea of ethnic entrepreneurs. I’m sure we can all think of a few of those…people who basically hustle ill will towards others based on irrelevant pieces of identity. Like skin color or religion.

She talks about how loss of status can tip people into fighting, here citing specifically the United States civil war, citing the south’s loss of status after Lincoln won in 1860 as the inciting factor. Maybe. Even probable. I haven’t quite gotten to Lincoln yet, and am by no means an American civil war expert. Here, combined with the idea of ethnic entrepreneurs, is where I started to have doubts. Before explaining that, let me explain this. One of the points she made in the book is that moderates…people in the center, like myself, are very good at listening to what the ethnic entrepreneurs and people losing status are saying, and identifying what is propaganda. It doesn’t ring true to the middle ground, because we are not blinded by our perception, or misperception, of reality. The being in the middle not being pulled in by the hatreds on the extremes of the spectrum… That idea IS expressed in the book, pretty much like that. Yes, I am disclaiming this ahead of what’s about to come.

When she’s talking about loss of status and ethnic entrepreneurs, one of the examples she cites is Sweden’s slide from a solid +10 to like a +8. So not anocratic yet. What she cites as the reason for the slide is the rise of the Social Democrats, an “alt-right” party in Sweden, who rebranded themselves from actual Nazis to Social Democrats, to fight the influx of Muslim immigrants. Here is why my doubts exist as to her logic. Remember a few months ago when I read Ayaan Hirsi Ali’s book, Prey: Immigration, Islam, and the Erosion of Women’s Rights? Sweden didn’t slide in to “alt-right” territory because the Muslim’s were moving in. The slid to the right occurred…not alt-right, but right of center… because the Muslim immigrants are refusing to adapt to Sweden’s norms, thus stripping Swedish citizens…namely women…of the rights the women had always had. So, Walter is presenting this information like the only grounds for the rise of the Social Democrats is racism against Muslims, pretending like the very legitimate fears the Social Democrats are addressing are only because of…racism. The entire country of Sweden suddenly became racist. Sweden may not be the only ethnic entrepreneur here…

The next catalyst to civil war is when hope dies, and here she pulls on stories from Ireland and the Provisional Irish Republican Army, and Syrian civil war, how when people feel they’ve been backed into a corner with no chance at redress from the government, they are more likely to attack.

So those are the basics: 1. Existing state of conflict, 2. Rise of Factions, 3. Loss of Status, 4. Loss of Hope. I’m pretty much good with all of those, her explanations were excellent, and she pulled from a variety of conflicts around the world to illustrate the point she was making. The 5th element….no connection to the movie of the same name… I would also agree with. Sort of. Where she starts to lose me is when her own…incredibly leftist bias…starts to show. Very boldly. And I’ll bet she thinks she’s a centrist.

The fifth element is social media, which acts as an accelerant or catalyst thrown on top of any one or combination of the above four points. Now, anyone who has ever even glanced at a mean tweet would have to agree that social media is an absolute dumpster fire of humanity. Like all of it. I can’t think of a single redeeming feature to YouTwitFace.

But where she starts to lose me is when she refers to how social media has allowed news that hasn’t been vetted through proper channels to be disseminated to the masses, allowing for the rise of fake news. Only, as we learned from last week’s book, The Gray Lady Winked, you know damn well that the New York Times…all the news that’s fit to print…has been maliciously spreading fake news for 100 years, 80 of that definitely pre-social media. Also…among the many reasons freedom of the press is encapsulated in the 1st amendment is that the founders figured it was up to the person reading the news to determine what was reliable news, and what was propaganda. Now…I will grant…that it is exceedingly likely that the founders grossly overestimated their descendant’s ability to think. I don’t believe the founders ever planned on a public school system that would stop teaching civics and believe that math was systemic racism.

She called Joe Rogan right wing and said his channel was a pipeline to people discovering more alt-right content. I’m pretty sure Joe Rogan is only considered right wing when compared to Mao Zedong. She says “the big technology companies have no incentive to restrict who uses their platform or what they say.” But then later gives thanks to Twitter for removing Trump and says there was an immediate relaxation in hostilities on Twitter when Trump was banned. But then you have to consider that Twitter is really only concerned with what’s said on American Twitter…they really don’t care if other countries descend into civil war over loss of freedom, only in restricting freedom here in the states. Allegedly. Maybe I’m wrong about that. Maybe that’s not why Elon Musk wants to buy Twitter.

She talks about how Russia used social media algorithms to disrupt elections here in the United States, without ever mentioning that Russia was trying to help Clinton win, not Trump.

Another quote from the book “there’s no better way to organize people today than social media—especially if those people are feeling aggrieved or threatened. It is how the Arab Spring protesters organized in 2011, how the Women’s March came together, and how the Black Lives Matter movement initially gained traction. But when this power to draw like-minded people intersects with extremist, outrage-driven narratives—and a thirst for violence—it creates a powder keg.” She says this unironically. Because none of us remember THIS ridiculous headline.

Apparently, the power of social media to organize people who feel aggrieved is only a good thing when the author agrees with the grievance.

And she says how fact checkers determined like 98% of right-wing posts were fact checked as false. It may not have been 98% but it was an absurdly high number. I’m going to chalk that up as information that did not age well.

Social media is a shit show. I agree with her there. But her conclusions are entirely one-sided. Walter’s bias is showing.

The next three chapters…basically the rest of the book…was PAINFUL. Because I had to drive the night I was reading this. So, I had to read it sober. And then my prick of a husband reminded me that I pick my own reading materials. Asshole.

The next chapter asks the question How Close Are We? And she recounts the events of January 6, 2021. Look….most of us here in the center would 100% agree that Jan 6 was a cluster fuck. It’s the epitome of play stupid games win stupid prizes. Know what’s not mentioned in the book? May 2020 riots. Because loss of hope due to police murder is an a-ok to spark riots and potential civil war. But the potentially stolen election was not reason to riot.

George Floyd situation was beyond awful. No one deserves to or should ever die in such circumstances, no matter how awful of a human being they may be. And as we learned in Officer Tatum’s book, Derek Chauvin’s tenure as an officer was pretty much destined to end in these circumstances, if not with Floyd, then someone else, because Chauvin is a shit human being. But among the reasons included in loss of hope is loss of faith in the system. The belief that the government can’t protect you. And the belief that elections are not fair. So ok…BLM was justified in rioting because the police are not protecting them. But the alt-right was rioting because they want to bring about the downfall of America? And she calls them patriots with absolute derision, saying they “think” they’re patriots, but they can’t really be. Why? Because their perception of reality is different from yours? As H.L. Mencken said “The notion that a radical is one who hates his country is naïve and usually idiotic. He is, more likely, one who likes his country more than the rest of us, and is thus more disturbed than the rest of us when he sees it debauched. He is not a bad citizen turning to crime; he is a good citizen driven to despair.” That ties in with all her reasons. It would be awfully nice if she’d turn some compassion on those who have a different perspective and rather than assuming they are alt-right racists, granting that they may have a valid point.

She then goes on to highlight all the awful horrible no good rotten things Trump did while in office. Including that just after Trump was elected…before he was even sworn in…our polity score dropped to +8. That’s awfully sus. The man hasn’t even done anything yet. A little soon to be throwing out the bath water yet. Sure you don’t want to make sure the baby isn’t in there first?

Trump was not an awesome president. There are many things he did wrong. I don’t agree with trade wars because as Frederic Bastiat says, “When goods don’t cross borders, Armies will.” Accurate, don’t you think? So, trade wars are stupid. She says he refused to release his tax returns. Why would he have to? They weren’t asking for his taxes from when he was president, but his taxes from when he was a private citizen. There’s no requirement for him to release that information. There was also no requirement for Obama to release his birth certificate. It’s ridiculous to think that the Democrats didn’t fully vet his qualifications and that was such a false flag, I’m still wondering what the congress critters screaming about it were trying to distract We the People from.

My favorite of Trumps “crimes” is that he instituted a rash of executive orders through which he ruled, rather than consulting with Congress. Wait til she gets a load of this. 44 out of 45 of our presidents have issued executive orders. The only one who didn’t was William Henry Harrison. Pretty sure the only reason he didn’t issue executive orders is because he died before he got the chance to. Trump isn’t even at the top of the list for executive orders issued. He’s somewhere in the middle, I believe 18th, and about 100 EO behind fellow one term president Jimmy Carter, and just slightly ahead of JFK, who was assassinated before his first term ended. The most executive orders ever issued was by FDR at 3,728, with the least amount issued at 1, tied by James Monroe, James Madison, and John Adams. That information comes from https://www.potus.com/presidential-facts/executive-orders/.

She tries to break down voting statistics as proof of right-wing conspiracy and makes the argument that if Civil War happens, the alt-right will try to scare the moderates into joining them by the “weak” tactics of guerilla warfare and terrorism. Couple of clarifying points here….first off, the American Revolution was won using guerilla tactics. We were grossly outnumbered and outgunned by the British. There is no way we could have won in a manly brave stand up fight. Second, if the moderates join the right, it’s not because the right convinced us of dick. It’s because the left pushed us away by being completely unreasonable about pretty much everything.

Walter points out that the urban areas tend to vote democrat and the rural areas tend to vote republican and makes the argument that we should do away with the electoral college to do away with the tyranny of the majority. But then also says that the majority voted for Clinton in 2016. The electoral college was designed to reign in the majority. Because based on the 2016 electoral map…. If we do away with the electoral college then those tiny spots of blue will determine our fate all the time. But don’t worry, that’s because they know what’s best for all of us. Listen…that distribution of urban to rural, is literally part of natural law. It’s called the Pareto principle. 20% of locations will gather 80% of the population. This does not make those who live in rural settings inferior, or even poorer, although Walter certainly implies both are true.

She even pulls out that most frustrating of Facebook memes…ok, I’m not sure where this originated, but Facebook is where I saw it…about how all states are equally represented in the Senate, even the states with the smallest populations have 2 senators and that’s just not fair. Ok…then states like Wyoming, the lowest populated state in the nation, will now get the same 53 representatives that say…California gets. The bicameral houses of congress were specifically designed this way. All states get equal representation in the Senate, with two senators per state. And each state gets proportional representation in the House of Representatives, based on population. Which is why California, as one of the most populated states, gets 53 representatives, while Wyoming, the least populated, gets 1. THAT was how the founders tried to ensure fairness in representation. But that fairness should not be extended to rural areas, I guess.

We really do need to return to civics in this country. Starting with the college professors who don’t seem to know the basic civics that I learned in high school. Let’s also address, really quick, how she keeps saying we need to preserve our democracy. We aren’t a democracy. We are a Constitutional Republic. According to legaldictionary.com, “A constitutional republic is a form of government in which a representative is elected by the people to govern over them, according to the rules established in the law of the land. An example of a constitutional republic is the United States’ form of government. U.S. citizens elect a President, and other representatives, who then govern them as the Constitution directs them to.”

A democracy is “a form of government in which the leaders are chosen by the citizens’ votes, and in which the people have a say in decisions about the state’s affairs. “

Do you see the difference? Should I explain it? I’m gonna explain it. The constitution LIMITS what the government is able to do. Our elected congress critters are not supposed to be doing anything that is not strictly allowed within the confines of the constitution. We don’t just “have a say” in decisions. They are not allowed to make decisions that violate the constitution. And, because I know some jackass out there will start screaming about slavery in the constitution, the 13th and 14th amendments took care of that. And lest there be any confusion, democrats voted against both. We the people have been very sloppy in enforcing this on our elected congress critters.

She says that 200 former military people are now part of white supremacist groups, implying that this is a HUGE problem. That is ALMOST exactly the number used in one of the NYT articles dissected in Ashley Rindsberg’s book last week. Last week, the author of one of the articles said something like 124 former military have been cited in violent crimes. That was the article that caused the other papers to push back and start a smack down on the NYT. There is something like 300,000 retired military personnel JUST from the war on terror. Never mind remaining vets from military actions in South Korea, Vietnam, and dozens of undeclared wars…aka police actions…throughout the 80’s and 90’s. 200 has absolutely no statistical significance. It’s not even a blip on the radar. 200 of 300k is .06% of the retired military personnel. Add in all the rest of the retired personnel and the “danger” drops even lower. But that’s dangerous. Or rather, the implication is that ALL our retired personnel and a significant number of the police are racists. And ready to join alt-right militia. Way to demonize an entire segment of the population. Ms. Walter…your bias is showing.

She does have a chapter on how to stop a civil war. It would help if people writing books like this weren’t so completely biased. I agree social media is a wretched place to be. But one of her recommendations is that the government should take over social media. Yes. Please do. Because then, instead of Twitter being able to deplatform Trump, which was their right as a privately owned company, Trump would never have left Twitter…that pesky Constitution and the first amendment. Congress shall make no law abridging freedom of speech. So yeah…let’s give social media to Congress. It will hamstring social media from shutting down discourse that the uber rich leftists and intellectual elites disagree with. You know what else would be helpful? Stop assuming that people who disagree with you are racists. Just because someone is white does not mean they are racist. Just because someone disagrees with you, does not mean they are racist.

So how do we stop civil wars? Walter says we need “leaders.” No, we don’t. I heard this on Michael Malice the other day, listening to his earlier podcasts. This is a quote from Isabel Paterson in 1943 “When the word leader, or leadership, returns to current use, it connotes a relapse into barbarism. For a civilized people, it is the most ominous word in any language.” They are not our leaders. They are our employees. It’s time to start firing them. You fire them by electing their replacements. And canceling the ridiculous golden parachute they voted for themselves.

Fair and open elections. Yes. Ok, I agree with that. That’s pretty much what the right wants too. The request for voter id is NOT unreasonable. And what kills me, is the leftists’ reasons for NOT wanting voter id is that it would be hard for minorities to obtain. Because, according to leftists, minorities are incapable of obtaining any ID. Remove corruption in our elected officials. Ok, agreed. Does that include Joe Biden? Because things are looking awfully shady with Hunter’s laptop and the war in Ukraine heating up. How about that clusterfuck with Nancy Pelosi and not allowing amendments on the house floor? Lest the right think they are superior here, this tradition was started 6 years ago, and maintained, regardless of who was the Speaker of the House. Just ask Justin Amash.

That’s some first-class corruption that violates all of our constitutional rights to petition congress for redress of grievances. How so, you might be asking. If you are a political junky, and you religiously follow CNN’s video of what’s going on in the house of representatives, and you find out a bill is being passed with some portion you disagree with, or conversely, believe should be included. So, you petition your congress critter to amend the bill. This is not allowed under current house rules. And so the speaker of the house, by instilling and then maintaining this rule, is violating all our rights. Let’s stop THAT corruption. I Love….sarcastically…where she says both that the right just wants to be left alone by the government, while also saying that more American’s are ready for authoritarian rule. YOU are ready for authoritarian rule. The rest of us just want to be left alone. Like the Constitution says we should be.

There were problems with this book. The first four chapters were well done. The last four…start drinking early. I despise intellectual dishonesty. And she refuses to be honest about the problems in this country that infect the left. She was pretty on point with some of the problems on the right. Except the boogaloo bois. I swear to god, I laughed out loud when she started citing the boogaloo as an alt-right uprising, rather than what it was…a Facebook joke gone horribly, macabrely, funny. It’s like when the left believed the ok hand sign was a symbol of white supremacy. It’s not. It’s a joke that started on 4-chan. And because the left has no sense of humor, they fell for it. Same with the boogaloo. My husband had a bachelor party this weekend. Requested dress was camo shorts and Hawaiian shirts. I told him to watch out for the boogaloo and he laughed. Because it’s funny. And because they were going shooting. So, I told him to remind them all that they are alt-right terrorist and to have fun storming the castle.

I had hoped to learn something new. What I learned is that the left is still pants shittingly terrified of any opinion that doesn’t conform with The Message. Yeah, we might be heading towards civil war. She seems to think that the pockets of urban blue surrounded by seas of red will prevent full balkanization. I have my doubts about that. If it happens, it will be ugly. But I could see the country fracturing along lines as highlighted in American Nations, that I read last year. Maybe we should balkanize. It’s clear that the fractures and rifts are getting pretty deep, not helped along by books like this that place all the blame on one side. Not helped along by ethnic entrepreneurs like Hillary Clinton, who called anyone voting for Trump a deplorable. Hell, I know people who voted for Trump BECAUSE Clinton called them deplorable for even entertaining the idea. Another option to civil war…one not included or even hinted at here…the government could just let states that want to secede, do so peacefully. That option would never occur to an authoritarian statist though.

I’m so done with this book, that I’m going to wrap with this series of tweets from one of my favorite fiction authors, Larry Correia:

“The ugly truth the beltway can’t grasp, it isn’t just that regular America doesn’t care about Jan 6. It’s that they hate you for making their lives miserable, so when they saw you cowering, they thought good, now they know how it feels to be afraid.

The gov fucked over regular America with Covid, then let cities burn because democrats were having a tantrum, then left half of them feeling cheated and disenfranchised…and you’re shocked none of them give a shit when pols got temporarily discomforted for one day?

The further you get from the beltway, the more Americans hate and distrust their government. Why shouldn’t they? You do nothing but fuck them over while your pet media blatantly lies to their faces.

They hated you a year and a half ago. Now you’ve fucked the economy, their money is worthless, they can’t buy gas or food, and you’re shocked that they don’t give a shit about your pathetic Soviet show trial, crying about how you felt scared for one day?

Where was the big public trial about the abysmal fuck up in Afghanistan, so many Americans wasted time, money, and lives on? Where was the big public trial for the hundred other Biden fuck ups? We all know the answer. Which just further illustrates why we despise you.” 

You know what’s funny? Everything about this tweet reinforces what the author was saying about the alt-right being the problem, we’re all poor, country degenerates. Correia is a highly successful LIBERTARIAN author. The left has pushed the center so hard, that as far as the left is concerned, ANYONE who disavows Mao is a right-wing extremist. Shit, that’s not funny at all.

This book was originally reviewed on YouTube on June 12, 2022 but is now available on Rumble and PodBean.